What really backs cryptocurrencies ? : CryptoCurrency
What really backs cryptocurrencies ? : CryptoCurrency
What It Would Take for the U.S. Dollar to Collapse
What Really Backs the U.S. Dollar?
What is Bitcoin Backed By?
What backs Bitcoin?
$1,000 invested in Top 10 Cryptos of 2019 now worth $1,260 (UP +26%)
EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2019 - Month Eighteen - UP +26% See the full blog post with all the tableshere. tl;dr - Tether (as it's designed to do) holds its ground, all others finish the month in negative territory. Tron finishes June in second place, down -2%. BSV loses nearly 25% of value in June. Overall, since January 2019, BTC in lead, ETH takes over second place, XRP still worst performing. The 2019 Top 10 is up +26% almost equal to the the gains of the S&P 500 over the same time period (+24%).
According to a June article citing unnamed sources, which two FinTech companies are planning to allow their users to buy and sell crypto directly?
A) Paypal and Venmo B) Square and Cashapp C) Robinhood and Revolut D) Sofi and Coinbase Scroll down for the answer.
Ranking and June Winners and Losers
XRP and Stellar slipped one place each in the rankings in June, now at #4 and #14 respectively. EOS fell two spots to #11 and joins Stellar and Tron as the only three cryptos to have dropped out of the 2019 Top Ten since January 1st, 2019. They have been replaced by Binance Coin, Cardano, and newcomer CRO. Tether was the only crypto to move up in rank in June. Not a good sign when Tether is the only crypto to move up. Not a good sign when Tether enters the Top 3. June Winners – Tether. Second comes Tron, which basically held its ground at -2%. June Losers – BSV lost -23% of its value in June making it the worst performing of the 2019 Top Ten portfolio. EOS had a rough month as well, down -17%, dropping two spots in the rankings, and falling out of the Top Ten. If you’re keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and loses during the first 18 months of the 2019 Top Ten Experiment: Tether is still in the lead with six monthly victories followed by BSV in second place with three. BSV also holds the most monthly losses, finishing last in seven out of eighteen months. The only crypto not to win a month so far? XRP. (In fairness, XRP has also not lost any month yet).
Overall update – BTC in lead, ETH takes over second place, XRP still worst performing
BTC is out front for the second straight month and ETH has taken over second place from BSV. Ahead until April, BSV has simply not keep up with the pack over the last two months. Bitcoin is up +144% since January 2019. The initial $100 investment in BTC is currently worth $249. Eighteen months in, 50% of the 2019 Top Ten cryptos are in the green since the beginning of the experiment. The other five cryptos are either flat or in negative territory, including last place XRP (down -50% since January 2019).
Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:
The crypto market as a whole is down about $20B in June, but still up +106% since January 2019.
BitDom finally wobbled in June, but not by much – it’s been in a very familiar zone for months now, indicating a lack of excitement (or at least a low risk tolerance) for altcoins. Taking a wider view, the Bitcoin Dominance range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2019 has ranged between 50%-70%.
Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2019:
The 2019 Top Ten Portfolio lost almost $175 in June. After the initial $1000 investment, the 2019 group of Top Ten cryptos is worth $1,259. That’s up about +26%. Here’s a look at the ROI over the life of the first 18 months of the 2019 Top Ten Index Fund experiment, month by month: 18 months of ROI, mostly green Unlike the completely red table you’ll see in the 2018 Top Ten Experiment, the 2019 crypto table is almost all green. The first month was the lowest point (-9%), and the highest point (+114%) was May 2019. How does the 2019 Top Ten Index Fund Portfolio compare to the parallel projects?
Taking the three portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line: After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, the combined portfolios are worth $2,710. That’s down about -10% for the three combined portfolios. Last month that figure was +4%. Better than a few months ago (aka the zombie apocalypse) where it was down -24%, but not yet back at January (+13%) or February (+6%) levels. Here’s a new table to help visualize the progress of the combined portfolios: ROI of all three combined portfolios - not exactly inspiring How do crypto returns compare to traditional markets?
Comparison to S&P 500:
Good thing I’m tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. Even with unemployment, protests, and COVID, the US market continued to rebound in June. It’s now up +24% in the last 18 months. The initial $1k investment I put into crypto would be worth $1,240 had it been redirected to the S&P 500 in January 2019. As a reminder (or just scroll up) the 2019 Top Ten portfolio is returning +26% over last 18 months, just about equal to the return of the S&P 500 over the same time period. Just last month the ROI of the 2019 Top Ten crypto portfolio was nearly double the S&P 500 since January 1st, 2019. But what if I took the same world’s-slowest-dollar-cost-averaging/$1,000-per-year-in-January approach with the S&P 500? It would yield the following:
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$170
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$240
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: -$40
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P: After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,370. That $3,370 is up over+12%since January 2018, compared to the $2,710 value (-10%) of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios. Here’s another new table that compares the ROI of the combined crypto portfolios to a hypothetical similar approach with the S&P 500: We see in June the largest difference in favor of the S&P since the beginning of 2020: a 22% gap. Compare that February, when there was only a 1% difference in ROI.
Since January 2019, the crypto market as a whole has gained +106% compared to the 2019 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio which has gained +26%. That’s an 80% gap. At this point in the 2019 Experiment, an investor would have done much better picking different cryptos or investing in the entire market instead of focusing only on the 2019 Top Ten. Over the course of the first 18 months of tracking the 2019 Top Ten, there have been instances this was a winning strategy, but the cases have been few and far between. The 2018 Top Ten portfolio, on the other hand, has never outperformed the overall market, at least not in the first thirty months of that Experiment. And for the most recent 2020 Top Ten group? The opposite had been true: the 2020 Top Ten had easily outperformed the overall market 100% of the time…up until the last two months.
As the world continues to battle COVID, traditional markets seem to be recovering. Will crypto make a significant move in the second half of 2020? Final word: Stay safe and take care of each other. Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for the original 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment and the recently launched 2020 Top Ten Experiment.
And the Answer is…
A) Paypal and Venmo According to a Coindesk report in June, three sources familiar with the matter say that Paypal and Paypal-owned Venmo are planning to allow their users to buy and sell crypto. Paypal has declined to comment.
DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir). Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance. Inspiration Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out. A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing. Data Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors. Google Search Trends \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months \"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months Brokerage data Robinhood SPY holders \"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement TD Ameritrade Excerpt Media cnbc.com Alexa rank CNBC viewership & rankings wallstreetbets comments / day investing comments / day Analysis What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well. However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so. SPX daily Rationale Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market. Sentiment & Magic Crayons As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality. From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities. SPY daily Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data. There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend. This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level. VIX Daily Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so. Putting Everything Together Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180. tldr; we've reached the top EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested. 5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level 5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing. 5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts 5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play. 5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30. 5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit. 5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30. 5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again 5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p 5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend. 5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there. 5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
What will undoubtedly happen from a macroeconomic (big picture) perspective... idiots
OKAY. So demand has been reduced dramatically around the world, our $21 trillion GDP has basically been paused for 2 months, so to keep it afloat (rough math), the government had to add $3.5 trillion to keep the economy running somewhat smoothly. That's a lot of printing, you idiots probably expect inflation. Wrong, step away from the US and look at what other countries are doing, the ECB (European Central Bank) and BOJ (Bank of Japan) are having to print trillions of dollars worth of EURO and YEN to keep their economies going, along with every other country getting pounded. Not only that, but since the US dollar makes up 70% of global transactions, in liquidity terms, trillions worth of euro and yen is MUCH MUCH more than any amount Jpow feels like printing, there's no way our printing could offset what the rest of the world is doing, so inflation isn't coming. If you want proof, just look at the euro/usd (going lower) and literally ANY emerging market currency is getting absolutely clapped vs the dollar. Furthermore, not only is US corporate debt at an all time high, but emerging markets, the eurozone, and asia has borrowed more dollars than ever before at any point in history, basically everyone around the world's debt is denominated in US DOLLARS. So what's about to happen? It's already happening, demand for US dollars is going up because everyone around the world wants to borrow more to offset cash flow concerns and pay off existing debts, which will cause the dollar to increase in value. What happens when the whole world has debt in dollars and the dollar goes up in value? DEBT BECOMES MORE EXPENSIVE. This is DEFLATION, and in particular and even more terrifying DEBT DEFLATION, a phrase that would make Jpow absolutely shit himself (and he knows its coming). This has already started before the whole beervirus nonsense, look at Venezuela and Zimbabwe, they had too much dollar debt, no one wanted to lend to them anymore and whoops, their currency is worthless now. It's going to be like a game of musical chairs for people trying to get access to dollars, starting with emerging markets and eventually moving into the more developed economies. The result: massive corporate bankruptcies, countries defaulting on debt (devaluing their currencies) and eventually a deleveraging of massive proportions. This WILL occur and no amount of printing can stop it, it's already too far gone. It doesn't matter what the stock market does, other markets around the world will be fucked, honestly it might cause the market to go up because of all the money fleeing other countries trying to find a safe place to live. Here are the plays assholes. TLT will go up because no matter what Jpow says, he doesn't control the fed funds rate, the market does, and US treasury bond yields have already priced in bonds going negative. CPI shows that we may see up to -3% inflation (3% deflation), meaning at .25% fed funds rate, the REAL rate is 3.25%, that is the worst thing possible during a deleveraging because it makes it harder to stimulate the economy, the fed has no choice, rates MUST go lower. Rates go lower, bond prices go up, TLT 12/18 $205c. Remember how I said scared foreign money will want to find a nice safe place to go when we go into the biggest debt crisis the world has seen in over 300 years? GLD 12/18 $240c. Finally, the dollar will rise in value as well so UUP 12/18 $28c. As far the actual market, we hit a high of SPY 339.08 in February, fell to a low of 218.26 by mid March, and have since then retraced EXACTLY to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 290, and started to bounce lower from there. I'm no technical analyst, but I do know history. During the greatest crashes in stock market history, 1929, 2001, 2008, the Nikkei in 1989 (Japan) this exact same thing happened, market got scared and fell to lows, then smoked that good hopium for a few weeks or month to retrace between 50% and 61.8% back to previews highs, then absolutely fell off a cliff. If you don't believe me, go look at the charts. Now, I'm personally not going to be betting on the US market falling because of the fact that its just straight up not reflecting reality and there are much better ways to trade on what's occurring (see trades above), but I PROMISE, that we will not be seeing new highs at any point any time soon. TLDR; The world is going to shit due to the dollars over-dominance of the world market, we will soon see the worst deleveraging in human history, and may very well have to come up with a new fiat money system (probably not bitcoin, but it wouldn't hurt to have some). TLT 12/18 $205c, GLD 12/18 $240c, and UUP 12/18 $28c. If you wanna be an autist and buy weeklys, I can't help you, but I basically just gave you the next big short, so you're welcome. DISCLAIMER: I didn't say what price to buy at for a reason, timing is extremely important for trades like this, so don't FOMO in and overpay, you will get clapped.
Hey all, I've been researching coins since 2017 and have gone through 100s of them in the last 3 years. I got introduced to blockchain via Bitcoin of course, analyzed Ethereum thereafter and from that moment I have a keen interest in smart contact platforms. I’m passionate about Ethereum but I find Zilliqa to have a better risk-reward ratio. Especially because Zilliqa has found an elegant balance between being secure, decentralized and scalable in my opinion.
Below I post my analysis of why from all the coins I went through I’m most bullish on Zilliqa (yes I went through Tezos, EOS, NEO, VeChain, Harmony, Algorand, Cardano etc.). Note that this is not investment advice and although it's a thorough analysis there is obviously some bias involved. Looking forward to what you all think!
Fun fact: the name Zilliqa is a play on ‘silica’ silicon dioxide which means “Silicon for the high-throughput consensus computer.”
This post is divided into (i) Technology, (ii) Business & Partnerships, and (iii) Marketing & Community. I’ve tried to make the technology part readable for a broad audience. If you’ve ever tried understanding the inner workings of Bitcoin and Ethereum you should be able to grasp most parts. Otherwise, just skim through and once you are zoning out head to the next part.
Technology and some more:
The technology is one of the main reasons why I’m so bullish on Zilliqa. First thing you see on their website is: “Zilliqa is a high-performance, high-security blockchain platform for enterprises and next-generation applications.” These are some bold statements.
Before we deep dive into the technology let’s take a step back in time first as they have quite the history. The initial research paper from which Zilliqa originated dates back to August 2016: Elastico: A Secure Sharding Protocol For Open Blockchains where Loi Luu (Kyber Network) is one of the co-authors. Other ideas that led to the development of what Zilliqa has become today are: Bitcoin-NG, collective signing CoSi, ByzCoin and Omniledger.
The technical white paper was made public in August 2017 and since then they have achieved everything stated in the white paper and also created their own open source intermediate level smart contract language called Scilla (functional programming language similar to OCaml) too.
Mainnet is live since the end of January 2019 with daily transaction rates growing continuously. About a week ago mainnet reached 5 million transactions, 500.000+ addresses in total along with 2400 nodes keeping the network decentralized and secure. Circulating supply is nearing 11 billion and currently only mining rewards are left. The maximum supply is 21 billion with annual inflation being 7.13% currently and will only decrease with time.
Zilliqa realized early on that the usage of public cryptocurrencies and smart contracts were increasing but decentralized, secure, and scalable alternatives were lacking in the crypto space. They proposed to apply sharding onto a public smart contract blockchain where the transaction rate increases almost linear with the increase in the amount of nodes. More nodes = higher transaction throughput and increased decentralization. Sharding comes in many forms and Zilliqa uses network-, transaction- and computational sharding. Network sharding opens up the possibility of using transaction- and computational sharding on top. Zilliqa does not use state sharding for now. We’ll come back to this later.
Before we continue dissecting how Zilliqa achieves such from a technological standpoint it’s good to keep in mind that a blockchain being decentralised and secure and scalable is still one of the main hurdles in allowing widespread usage of decentralised networks. In my opinion this needs to be solved first before blockchains can get to the point where they can create and add large scale value. So I invite you to read the next section to grasp the underlying fundamentals. Because after all these premises need to be true otherwise there isn’t a fundamental case to be bullish on Zilliqa, right?
Down the rabbit hole
How have they achieved this? Let’s define the basics first: key players on Zilliqa are the users and the miners. A user is anybody who uses the blockchain to transfer funds or run smart contracts. Miners are the (shard) nodes in the network who run the consensus protocol and get rewarded for their service in Zillings (ZIL). The mining network is divided into several smaller networks called shards, which is also referred to as ‘network sharding’. Miners subsequently are randomly assigned to a shard by another set of miners called DS (Directory Service) nodes. The regular shards process transactions and the outputs of these shards are eventually combined by the DS shard as they reach consensus on the final state. More on how these DS shards reach consensus (via pBFT) will be explained later on.
The Zilliqa network produces two types of blocks: DS blocks and Tx blocks. One DS Block consists of 100 Tx Blocks. And as previously mentioned there are two types of nodes concerned with reaching consensus: shard nodes and DS nodes. Becoming a shard node or DS node is being defined by the result of a PoW cycle (Ethash) at the beginning of the DS Block. All candidate mining nodes compete with each other and run the PoW (Proof-of-Work) cycle for 60 seconds and the submissions achieving the highest difficulty will be allowed on the network. And to put it in perspective: the average difficulty for one DS node is ~ 2 Th/s equaling 2.000.000 Mh/s or 55 thousand+ GeForce GTX 1070 / 8 GB GPUs at 35.4 Mh/s. Each DS Block 10 new DS nodes are allowed. And a shard node needs to provide around 8.53 GH/s currently (around 240 GTX 1070s). Dual mining ETH/ETC and ZIL is possible and can be done via mining software such as Phoenix and Claymore. There are pools and if you have large amounts of hashing power (Ethash) available you could mine solo.
The PoW cycle of 60 seconds is a peak performance and acts as an entry ticket to the network. The entry ticket is called a sybil resistance mechanism and makes it incredibly hard for adversaries to spawn lots of identities and manipulate the network with these identities. And after every 100 Tx Blocks which corresponds to roughly 1,5 hour this PoW process repeats. In between these 1,5 hour, no PoW needs to be done meaning Zilliqa’s energy consumption to keep the network secure is low. For more detailed information on how mining works click here. Okay, hats off to you. You have made it this far. Before we go any deeper down the rabbit hole we first must understand why Zilliqa goes through all of the above technicalities and understand a bit more what a blockchain on a more fundamental level is. Because the core of Zilliqa’s consensus protocol relies on the usage of pBFT (practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance) we need to know more about state machines and their function. Navigate to Viewblock, a Zilliqa block explorer, and just come back to this article. We will use this site to navigate through a few concepts.
We have established that Zilliqa is a public and distributed blockchain. Meaning that everyone with an internet connection can send ZILs, trigger smart contracts, etc. and there is no central authority who fully controls the network. Zilliqa and other public and distributed blockchains (like Bitcoin and Ethereum) can also be defined as state machines.
Taking the liberty of paraphrasing examples and definitions given by Samuel Brooks’ medium article, he describes the definition of a blockchain (like Zilliqa) as: “A peer-to-peer, append-only datastore that uses consensus to synchronize cryptographically-secure data”.
Next, he states that: "blockchains are fundamentally systems for managing valid state transitions”. For some more context, I recommend reading the whole medium article to get a better grasp of the definitions and understanding of state machines. Nevertheless, let’s try to simplify and compile it into a single paragraph. Take traffic lights as an example: all its states (red, amber, and green) are predefined, all possible outcomes are known and it doesn’t matter if you encounter the traffic light today or tomorrow. It will still behave the same. Managing the states of a traffic light can be done by triggering a sensor on the road or pushing a button resulting in one traffic lights’ state going from green to red (via amber) and another light from red to green.
With public blockchains like Zilliqa, this isn’t so straightforward and simple. It started with block #1 almost 1,5 years ago and every 45 seconds or so a new block linked to the previous block is being added. Resulting in a chain of blocks with transactions in it that everyone can verify from block #1 to the current #647.000+ block. The state is ever changing and the states it can find itself in are infinite. And while the traffic light might work together in tandem with various other traffic lights, it’s rather insignificant comparing it to a public blockchain. Because Zilliqa consists of 2400 nodes who need to work together to achieve consensus on what the latest valid state is while some of these nodes may have latency or broadcast issues, drop offline or are deliberately trying to attack the network, etc.
Now go back to the Viewblock page take a look at the amount of transaction, addresses, block and DS height and then hit refresh. Obviously as expected you see new incremented values on one or all parameters. And how did the Zilliqa blockchain manage to transition from a previous valid state to the latest valid state? By using pBFT to reach consensus on the latest valid state.
After having obtained the entry ticket, miners execute pBFT to reach consensus on the ever-changing state of the blockchain. pBFT requires a series of network communication between nodes, and as such there is no GPU involved (but CPU). Resulting in the total energy consumed to keep the blockchain secure, decentralized and scalable being low.
pBFT stands for practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance and is an optimization on the Byzantine Fault Tolerant algorithm. To quote Blockonomi: “In the context of distributed systems, Byzantine Fault Tolerance is the ability of a distributed computer network to function as desired and correctly reach a sufficient consensus despite malicious components (nodes) of the system failing or propagating incorrect information to other peers.” Zilliqa is such a distributed computer network and depends on the honesty of the nodes (shard and DS) to reach consensus and to continuously update the state with the latest block. If pBFT is a new term for you I can highly recommend the Blockonomi article.
The idea of pBFT was introduced in 1999 - one of the authors even won a Turing award for it - and it is well researched and applied in various blockchains and distributed systems nowadays. If you want more advanced information than the Blockonomi link provides click here. And if you’re in between Blockonomi and the University of Singapore read the Zilliqa Design Story Part 2 dating from October 2017. Quoting from the Zilliqa tech whitepaper: “pBFT relies upon a correct leader (which is randomly selected) to begin each phase and proceed when the sufficient majority exists. In case the leader is byzantine it can stall the entire consensus protocol. To address this challenge, pBFT offers a view change protocol to replace the byzantine leader with another one.”
pBFT can tolerate ⅓ of the nodes being dishonest (offline counts as Byzantine = dishonest) and the consensus protocol will function without stalling or hiccups. Once there are more than ⅓ of dishonest nodes but no more than ⅔ the network will be stalled and a view change will be triggered to elect a new DS leader. Only when more than ⅔ of the nodes are dishonest (66%) double-spend attacks become possible.
If the network stalls no transactions can be processed and one has to wait until a new honest leader has been elected. When the mainnet was just launched and in its early phases, view changes happened regularly. As of today the last stalling of the network - and view change being triggered - was at the end of October 2019.
Another benefit of using pBFT for consensus besides low energy is the immediate finality it provides. Once your transaction is included in a block and the block is added to the chain it’s done. Lastly, take a look at this article where three types of finality are being defined: probabilistic, absolute and economic finality. Zilliqa falls under the absolute finality (just like Tendermint for example). Although lengthy already we skipped through some of the inner workings from Zilliqa’s consensus: read the Zilliqa Design Story Part 3 and you will be close to having a complete picture on it. Enough about PoW, sybil resistance mechanism, pBFT, etc. Another thing we haven’t looked at yet is the amount of decentralization.
Currently, there are four shards, each one of them consisting of 600 nodes. 1 shard with 600 so-called DS nodes (Directory Service - they need to achieve a higher difficulty than shard nodes) and 1800 shard nodes of which 250 are shard guards (centralized nodes controlled by the team). The amount of shard guards has been steadily declining from 1200 in January 2019 to 250 as of May 2020. On the Viewblock statistics, you can see that many of the nodes are being located in the US but those are only the (CPU parts of the) shard nodes who perform pBFT. There is no data from where the PoW sources are coming. And when the Zilliqa blockchain starts reaching its transaction capacity limit, a network upgrade needs to be executed to lift the current cap of maximum 2400 nodes to allow more nodes and formation of more shards which will allow to network to keep on scaling according to demand. Besides shard nodes there are also seed nodes. The main role of seed nodes is to serve as direct access points (for end-users and clients) to the core Zilliqa network that validates transactions. Seed nodes consolidate transaction requests and forward these to the lookup nodes (another type of nodes) for distribution to the shards in the network. Seed nodes also maintain the entire transaction history and the global state of the blockchain which is needed to provide services such as block explorers. Seed nodes in the Zilliqa network are comparable to Infura on Ethereum.
The seed nodes were first only operated by Zilliqa themselves, exchanges and Viewblock. Operators of seed nodes like exchanges had no incentive to open them for the greater public. They were centralised at first. Decentralisation at the seed nodes level has been steadily rolled out since March 2020 ( Zilliqa Improvement Proposal 3 ). Currently the amount of seed nodes is being increased, they are public-facing and at the same time PoS is applied to incentivize seed node operators and make it possible for ZIL holders to stake and earn passive yields. Important distinction: seed nodes are not involved with consensus! That is still PoW as entry ticket and pBFT for the actual consensus.
5% of the block rewards are being assigned to seed nodes (from the beginning in 2019) and those are being used to pay out ZIL stakers. The 5% block rewards with an annual yield of 10.03% translate to roughly 610 MM ZILs in total that can be staked. Exchanges use the custodial variant of staking and wallets like Moonlet will use the non-custodial version (starting in Q3 2020). Staking is being done by sending ZILs to a smart contract created by Zilliqa and audited by Quantstamp.
With a high amount of DS; shard nodes and seed nodes becoming more decentralized too, Zilliqa qualifies for the label of decentralized in my opinion.
Generalized: programming languages can be divided into being ‘object-oriented’ or ‘functional’. Here is an ELI5 given by software development academy: * “all programs have two basic components, data – what the program knows – and behavior – what the program can do with that data. So object-oriented programming states that combining data and related behaviors in one place, is called “object”, which makes it easier to understand how a particular program works. On the other hand, functional programming argues that data and behavior are different things and should be separated to ensure their clarity.” *
Scilla is on the functional side and shares similarities with OCaml: OCaml is a general-purpose programming language with an emphasis on expressiveness and safety. It has an advanced type system that helps catch your mistakes without getting in your way. It's used in environments where a single mistake can cost millions and speed matters, is supported by an active community, and has a rich set of libraries and development tools. For all its power, OCaml is also pretty simple, which is one reason it's often used as a teaching language.
Scilla is blockchain agnostic, can be implemented onto other blockchains as well, is recognized by academics and won a so-called Distinguished Artifact Award award at the end of last year.
One of the reasons why the Zilliqa team decided to create their own programming language focused on preventing smart contract vulnerabilities is that adding logic on a blockchain, programming, means that you cannot afford to make mistakes. Otherwise, it could cost you. It’s all great and fun blockchains being immutable but updating your code because you found a bug isn’t the same as with a regular web application for example. And with smart contracts, it inherently involves cryptocurrencies in some form thus value.
Another difference with programming languages on a blockchain is gas. Every transaction you do on a smart contract platform like Zilliqa or Ethereum costs gas. With gas you basically pay for computational costs. Sending a ZIL from address A to address B costs 0.001 ZIL currently. Smart contracts are more complex, often involve various functions and require more gas (if gas is a new concept click here ).
So with Scilla, similar to Solidity, you need to make sure that “every function in your smart contract will run as expected without hitting gas limits. An improper resource analysis may lead to situations where funds may get stuck simply because a part of the smart contract code cannot be executed due to gas limits. Such constraints are not present in traditional software systems”.Scilla design story part 1
Some examples of smart contract issues you’d want to avoid are: leaking funds, ‘unexpected changes to critical state variables’ (example: someone other than you setting his or her address as the owner of the smart contract after creation) or simply killing a contract.
Scilla also allows for formal verification. Wikipedia to the rescue: In the context of hardware and software systems, formal verification is the act of proving or disproving the correctness of intended algorithms underlying a system with respect to a certain formal specification or property, using formal methods of mathematics.
Formal verification can be helpful in proving the correctness of systems such as: cryptographic protocols, combinational circuits, digital circuits with internal memory, and software expressed as source code.
“Scilla is being developed hand-in-hand with formalization of its semantics and its embedding into the Coq proof assistant — a state-of-the art tool for mechanized proofs about properties of programs.”
Simply put, with Scilla and accompanying tooling developers can be mathematically sure and proof that the smart contract they’ve written does what he or she intends it to do.
Smart contract on a sharded environment and state sharding
There is one more topic I’d like to touch on: smart contract execution in a sharded environment (and what is the effect of state sharding). This is a complex topic. I’m not able to explain it any easier than what is posted here. But I will try to compress the post into something easy to digest.
Earlier on we have established that Zilliqa can process transactions in parallel due to network sharding. This is where the linear scalability comes from. We can define simple transactions: a transaction from address A to B (Category 1), a transaction where a user interacts with one smart contract (Category 2) and the most complex ones where triggering a transaction results in multiple smart contracts being involved (Category 3). The shards are able to process transactions on their own without interference of the other shards. With Category 1 transactions that is doable, with Category 2 transactions sometimes if that address is in the same shard as the smart contract but with Category 3 you definitely need communication between the shards. Solving that requires to make a set of communication rules the protocol needs to follow in order to process all transactions in a generalised fashion.
There is no strict defined roadmap but here are topics being worked on. And via the Zilliqa website there is also more information on the projects they are working on.
Business & Partnerships
It’s not only technology in which Zilliqa seems to be excelling as their ecosystem has been expanding and starting to grow rapidly. The project is on a mission to provide OpenFinance (OpFi) to the world and Singapore is the right place to be due to its progressive regulations and futuristic thinking. Singapore has taken a proactive approach towards cryptocurrencies by introducing the Payment Services Act 2019 (PS Act). Among other things, the PS Act will regulate intermediaries dealing with certain cryptocurrencies, with a particular focus on consumer protection and anti-money laundering. It will also provide a stable regulatory licensing and operating framework for cryptocurrency entities, effectively covering all crypto businesses and exchanges based in Singapore. According to PWC 82% of the surveyed executives in Singapore reported blockchain initiatives underway and 13% of them have already brought the initiatives live to the market. There is also an increasing list of organizations that are starting to provide digital payment services. Moreover, Singaporean blockchain developers Building Cities Beyond has recently created an innovation $15 million grant to encourage development on its ecosystem. This all suggests that Singapore tries to position itself as (one of) the leading blockchain hubs in the world.
Zilliqa seems to already take advantage of this and recently helped launch Hg Exchange on their platform, together with financial institutions PhillipCapital, PrimePartners and Fundnel. Hg Exchange, which is now approved by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), uses smart contracts to represent digital assets. Through Hg Exchange financial institutions worldwide can use Zilliqa's safe-by-design smart contracts to enable the trading of private equities. For example, think of companies such as Grab, Airbnb, SpaceX that are not available for public trading right now. Hg Exchange will allow investors to buy shares of private companies & unicorns and capture their value before an IPO. Anquan, the main company behind Zilliqa, has also recently announced that they became a partner and shareholder in TEN31 Bank, which is a fully regulated bank allowing for tokenization of assets and is aiming to bridge the gap between conventional banking and the blockchain world. If STOs, the tokenization of assets, and equity trading will continue to increase, then Zilliqa’s public blockchain would be the ideal candidate due to its strategic positioning, partnerships, regulatory compliance and the technology that is being built on top of it.
What is also very encouraging is their focus on banking the un(der)banked. They are launching a stablecoin basket starting with XSGD. As many of you know, stablecoins are currently mostly used for trading. However, Zilliqa is actively trying to broaden the use case of stablecoins. I recommend everybody to read this text that Amrit Kumar wrote (one of the co-founders). These stablecoins will be integrated in the traditional markets and bridge the gap between the crypto world and the traditional world. This could potentially revolutionize and legitimise the crypto space if retailers and companies will for example start to use stablecoins for payments or remittances, instead of it solely being used for trading.
Zilliqa also released their DeFi strategic roadmap (dating November 2019) which seems to be aligning well with their OpFi strategy. A non-custodial DEX is coming to Zilliqa made by Switcheo which allows cross-chain trading (atomic swaps) between ETH, EOS and ZIL based tokens. They also signed a Memorandum of Understanding for a (soon to be announced) USD stablecoin. And as Zilliqa is all about regulations and being compliant, I’m speculating on it to be a regulated USD stablecoin. Furthermore, XSGD is already created and visible on block explorer and XIDR (Indonesian Stablecoin) is also coming soon via StraitsX. Here also an overview of the Tech Stack for Financial Applications from September 2019. Further quoting Amrit Kumar on this:
There are two basic building blocks in DeFi/OpFi though: 1) stablecoins as you need a non-volatile currency to get access to this market and 2) a dex to be able to trade all these financial assets. The rest are built on top of these blocks.
So far, together with our partners and community, we have worked on developing these building blocks with XSGD as a stablecoin. We are working on bringing a USD-backed stablecoin as well. We will soon have a decentralised exchange developed by Switcheo. And with HGX going live, we are also venturing into the tokenization space. More to come in the future.”
Additionally, they also have this ZILHive initiative that injects capital into projects. There have been already 6 waves of various teams working on infrastructure, innovation and research, and they are not from ASEAN or Singapore only but global: see Grantees breakdown by country. Over 60 project teams from over 20 countries have contributed to Zilliqa's ecosystem. This includes individuals and teams developing wallets, explorers, developer toolkits, smart contract testing frameworks, dapps, etc. As some of you may know, Unstoppable Domains (UD) blew up when they launched on Zilliqa. UD aims to replace cryptocurrency addresses with a human-readable name and allows for uncensorable websites. Zilliqa will probably be the only one able to handle all these transactions onchain due to ability to scale and its resulting low fees which is why the UD team launched this on Zilliqa in the first place. Furthermore, Zilliqa also has a strong emphasis on security, compliance, and privacy, which is why they partnered with companies like Elliptic, ChainSecurity (part of PwC Switzerland), and Incognito. Their sister company Aqilliz (Zilliqa spelled backwards) focuses on revolutionizing the digital advertising space and is doing interesting things like using Zilliqa to track outdoor digital ads with companies like Foodpanda.
Zilliqa is listed on nearly all major exchanges, having several different fiat-gateways and recently have been added to Binance’s margin trading and futures trading with really good volume. They also have a very impressive team with good credentials and experience. They don't just have “tech people”. They have a mix of tech people, business people, marketeers, scientists, and more. Naturally, it's good to have a mix of people with different skill sets if you work in the crypto space.
Marketing & Community
Zilliqa has a very strong community. If you just follow their Twitter their engagement is much higher for a coin that has approximately 80k followers. They also have been ‘coin of the day’ by LunarCrush many times. LunarCrush tracks real-time cryptocurrency value and social data. According to their data, it seems Zilliqa has a more fundamental and deeper understanding of marketing and community engagement than almost all other coins. While almost all coins have been a bit frozen in the last months, Zilliqa seems to be on its own bull run. It was somewhere in the 100s a few months ago and is currently ranked #46 on CoinGecko. Their official Telegram also has over 20k people and is very active, and their community channel which is over 7k now is more active and larger than many other official channels. Their local communities also seem to be growing.
Moreover, their community started ‘Zillacracy’ together with the Zilliqa core team ( see www.zillacracy.com ). It’s a community-run initiative where people from all over the world are now helping with marketing and development on Zilliqa. Since its launch in February 2020 they have been doing a lot and will also run their own non-custodial seed node for staking. This seed node will also allow them to start generating revenue for them to become a self sustaining entity that could potentially scale up to become a decentralized company working in parallel with the Zilliqa core team. Comparing it to all the other smart contract platforms (e.g. Cardano, EOS, Tezos etc.) they don't seem to have started a similar initiative (correct me if I’m wrong though). This suggests in my opinion that these other smart contract platforms do not fully understand how to utilize the ‘power of the community’. This is something you cannot ‘buy with money’ and gives many projects in the space a disadvantage.
Zilliqa also released two social products called SocialPay and Zeeves. SocialPay allows users to earn ZILs while tweeting with a specific hashtag. They have recently used it in partnership with the Singapore Red Cross for a marketing campaign after their initial pilot program. It seems like a very valuable social product with a good use case. I can see a lot of traditional companies entering the space through this product, which they seem to suggest will happen. Tokenizing hashtags with smart contracts to get network effect is a very smart and innovative idea.
Regarding Zeeves, this is a tipping bot for Telegram. They already have 1000s of signups and they plan to keep upgrading it for more and more people to use it (e.g. they recently have added a quiz features). They also use it during AMAs to reward people in real-time. It’s a very smart approach to grow their communities and get familiar with ZIL. I can see this becoming very big on Telegram. This tool suggests, again, that the Zilliqa team has a deeper understanding of what the crypto space and community needs and is good at finding the right innovative tools to grow and scale.
To be honest, I haven’t covered everything (i’m also reaching the character limited haha). So many updates happening lately that it's hard to keep up, such as the International Monetary Fund mentioning Zilliqa in their report, custodial and non-custodial Staking, Binance Margin, Futures, Widget, entering the Indian market, and more. The Head of Marketing Colin Miles has also released this as an overview of what is coming next. And last but not least, Vitalik Buterin has been mentioning Zilliqa lately acknowledging Zilliqa and mentioning that both projects have a lot of room to grow. There is much more info of course and a good part of it has been served to you on a silver platter. I invite you to continue researching by yourself :-) And if you have any comments or questions please post here!
Dai is a decentralized cryptocurrency stabilized against the value of the US dollar. Created via the Makers (MKR) Dai Stablecoin System, it uses margin trading to respond to changing market conditions and preserve its value against the major world currencies. How it works : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9q8hkyy8oM&
What would a DAI on BCH be?
I am gonna refer DAI on BCH as "DeCash" because first I like the name and also it's decentralized cash. DAI is backed by ETH, BAT, USDC, WBTC, KNC and ZRX. For DeCash I'm presuming it would be backed by BCH\1]), SPICE\2]), HONK\3]), USDH\4]), DROP\5]) and SAI\6]) (These are all the major SLP's I know) Though I have doubts on HONK. It would also function like the DAI on Ethereum [ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9q8hkyy8oM&]
PSA: How to use crypto to sell/buy PMs on r/PMsForSale
TL;DR 1: this is not an investment recommendation. This is not an endorsement of any crypto coin, token, or service. This post (which is a bit longish) describes how to use crypto as another payment mechanism. It would just add another tool to your PM trading toolbox. TL;DR 2: This is not an exhaustive review – it’s a simplified how-to. Calling me out on certain minute aspects is useless. However, if I made a mistake, or omitted something important PLEAESE correct me. TL;DR 3: I’ll describe everything in chapters, so as you go down, if you feel this is irrelevant to you, you can stop without spending too much time reading it all.
Chapter 1: Why use crypto
You control the entire transaction, end to end. You do not need a third party (Like PayPal or Google) telling you what you’re allowed to sell, and for how much. You do not need to resort to subterfuge (“use Friends & Family, and make sure to leave no notes!”).
Crypto transactions add a level of privacy (depending on how you use them).
Transactions are secure (read more about blockchain technology), and usually only involve you sharing your crypto address with your counterpart.
Transactions are irreversible – good if you’re an established seller who’s afraid of chargebacks by scammers.
Yet transactions can still be proven – they’re out there on the blockchain, available for all to see.
Most of the time, transactions are fast (depending on network traffic and amount of gas paid).
Chapter 2: Types of crypto
I’m not going to go into technicalities, and definitely not recommend anything. Let’s just split the crypto world right now into 2 types of coins: stable, and unstable.
Unstable coins (Bitcoin, Ether, Ripple etc.) can see their fiat value go up or down several times a minute. They’re volatile, and while they can be used to pay, the buyer and seller need to agree on the spot, convert fiat to the coin and start the transaction – at the end of which, the fiat value received may be higher or lower than when the transfer started. Because of that, I’ll avoid discussing them here.
Stable coins usually run on the Ethereum blockchain, and use a technology called “smart contract” to attach their value to fiat. A stable coin like USDC, DAI, USDT etc. will always be worth $1 (give or take 1% at certain times). For all intents and purposes, if I quote you a price of $250 and you send me 250 USDC – we’re done.
Chapter 3: what do I need to have to trade in stable coins?
An address – your crypto address allows you to control crypto on the blockchain. More specifically, it allows you to withdraw funds (since everyone can deposit to your address, whether you want it or not).
A crypto wallet. A wallet is NOT where you hold your coins! Your “money” is on the blockchain, assigned to your address. Your wallet allows you to mange the coins in that address. You can either use one of the free wallets out there, or have one provided to you by an exchange. I recommend MetaMask. It runs as a browser extension (Chrome, Firefox, Brave) or a mobile app. Make sure you do your due diligence before selecting a wallet, so you wont use a scammy app, that will use your pass phrase to clean up your address!
Some Ether (usually 0.05-0.1 ether is enough for several transactions) – every transfer on the blockchain has a fee, representing compensation for the computer work done to transfer funds from address to address. This fee, known as “gas” can go from fractions of a cent to several dollars – depending on the blockchain traffic at the time. You can control the amount of gas, and price of gas for your transactions, but generally speaking: the less you pay, the slower the transfer. Gas is paid in Ether only, so you need some in your wallet (see below on how to get it).
If you want to sell using crypto – you’re done!
If you want to buy using Crypto, you’ll need to convert some fiat to stable coins – see next chapter.
Chapter 4: Quickest way to get stable coins
The easiest way to start (in the US – your miles/kilometres may vary elsewhere) is to open a Coinbase account. (Disclaimer: you can choose any other exchange. I’m not compensated by Coinbase, I have no stake in Coinbase, I don’t work there, or know anyone who does. There’s a reason I mention them: they make this simple.) While Coinbase is the fastest and easiest way to go for noobs, there are some caveats:
Coinbase is a registered financial company. They require full KYC (i.e. photo of your driver’s license). Everything you do gets reported to the IRS, authorities, etc. But then, your bank does the same.
Coinbase doesn’t care where the funds come and go – unless law enforcement, IRS, SEC etc tell them to care. If you’re privacy-oriented, an exchange is not for you, go to the next chapter.
Let’s look at the steps of using Coinbase, and how much they’ll cost you:
Open Coinbase account (free)
Go through KYC needed to connect a bank account to your Coinbase account (free)
Transfer fiat to your account (free if bank transfer, otherwise credit/debit card fee applies)
Convert fiat to the stable coin USDC (FREE! Since Coinbase “owns” USDC, they don’t charge anything to convert back and forth between USD and USDC. And it’s always 1-1 conversion.)
Transfer USDC to an external wallet (yours, or a sellers) (FREE! Again, another perk – Coinbase pays your transfer gas fee).
If you’re content with using Coinbase as your wallet, you are done!
a. When you want to buy, you ask the seller for his address, and transfer USDC to him (free). b. When you want to sell, you give the user your Coinbase USDC address and he sends there (free again). c. Make sure you send the right address – there are no backsies in crypto!!!
Using your own wallet:
Install MetaMask. Follow instructions to create your address. Make sure you keep the pass phrase safe (NOT ON YOUR COMPUTER).
Go through steps 1-5 to convert some fiat to USDC for free.
Buy some ether – Currently Ether spot is about $230, meaning it’ll cost you about $10-20 to get some Ether + whatever fee Coinbase has on trading.
Send the USDC to your new address.
Send the Ether to your new address.
You are now good to send and receive payments!
When you receive USDC from a buyer, you can either keep them in your wallet for further use, or send to Coinbase, convert to fiat and send to your bank account. Always remember: on Coinbase 1 USDC == $1.
Chapter 5: Doing it on your own – for advanced users only
If you don’t like sharing all your info with Coinbase, you can definitely just install your own wallet (MetaMask is still the best option, IMHO, but there are many more), and fund it personally. The biggest challenge you’ll face is: how do I convert fiat to crypto? Here are some options:
The easiest: get someone to sell you some. Someone who already went through the whole process, and will agree to give you some crypto. Once you have crypto, you can easily convert it to any other crypto, without using any exchange, using crypto swap apps.
The more expansive: use a service like Changelly (and there are others – again: I have no stake) to “buy” crypto. Take into account that they have fees. There are also services (like LocalBitcoins) that will allow you to buy directly from other people, for lower fees.
You can use a different exchange, perhaps even one in a different country. Take into account that you’ll need to get actual money there, so at one point, someone will know something about you.
As said, once you have ANY crypto in your wallet, it’s easy to convert it to stable coins, Ether, or everything else you need.
I tried covering the basics of using crypto for payment. I did my best to avoid techy aspects and jargon. Crypto is here to stay. Next (and current) generations will use it, like we’re using credit cards and PayPal. It will have no “magic” or “hoax” attached to it. It’s not “good” or “bad” – it’s just another way to convey value. I was taught all this by someone. I’m sharing this with you now, in the hope you’ll share it with other people. That’s how knowledge grows. If anyone wants any clarification, or expansion on any item, feel free to comment below, or reach out to me.
Stop spending my tax money on troops. the last time that ANY use of US military was justified was pearl harbor. Americans do not need bases overseas. We did not need to "beat the communists." We certainly do not need to be out there in the middle east "nation building". Those are american lives being lost for nothing but pointless political scores.
Start spending my money on developing american energy independence. If all american cars were electric, we wouldn't be dependent on saudi oil. We would never had to interfere with saddam hussein. Kuwait would have never been invaded because the oil wouldn't be worth money. 9/11 would have never happened because bin ladin would have never been radicalized because of the gulf war. We wouldn't need to prop israel up, because nothing in the region would have any utility. Energy independence would have altered all of this. Forget about the environment if you want. Energy independence is the right call, purely from a geopolitical standpoint.
For fucks sake, stop taxing cryptocurrency to cryptocurrency trade transactions. Nobody can keep that shit straight. I traded eth ->zrx -> btc ->usdc and then I sold a bunch of puts that paid... in oEth. Which doesn't even have value until redeemed from the smart contract. The fuck am I supposed to put on my tax returns? oeth? It's a logic block until redeemed, and until then its a floating variable that moves all over the place in value.
Get the voting system fixed. This shit of pitting people against each other using both gerrymandering and winner take it all voting instead of ranked choice voting is wrong. It allows insiders to manipulate the elections, and it creates absolute insanity. The current system is how we got donald trump vs hillary. Neither side could vote for third party, despite many wanting to. What will it take to get us there? Armed revolution and general insurrection? Dead bodies in the streets? Protesters setting themselves on fire? What? The founding fathers warned about factions. You are the embodiment of hamilton's worst nightmares.
Stop printing money. Move back to a semblance of sound money. People do not want to go into debt to buy stuff. Debt is toxic. It is a system that enslaves people, makes them default, and throughout the entire process of defaulting, their stress goes up, and they have health problems because of it. People should not be forward loading their debt into the future as the optimal strategy. Right now, your system of money printing makes debt more appetizing. And that is wrong. There is a reason we buy bitcoin. We fucking hate you and your system. The money printing is theft from the people, and the fed needs to be held to account for the theft of trillions of dollars from the american people.
Stop it with the surveillance network. STOP IT. The price of a surveillance state is too high a price for freedom. I would rather be unsafe and free, rather than be safe but stuck in a prison. And the to the CIA... You are a bunch of goatfuckers that ALL deserve to be strung up in nooses for crimes against humanity. You led the overthrow of pretty much every south american countries democratically elected government at one time or another in the last 100 years. And you are responsible for hoarding and deploying vulnerabilities instead of working with american software manufacturers to get them patched. You are a rogue organization, and every single one of you deserves a full military court martial for crimes against the people of the united states, and against the world. You have destabilized our diplomacy, and tarnished our reputation.
Legalize ALL drugs. Half of the problems in law enforcement go back to our prohibition against drugs. Let people use them in the safety of their own homes. Regulate them. Provide users with clean safe ways of using. Educate people. Provide quitting services for people who want to quit. But at the end of the day, our minds are our minds, and you the state have no business trying to regulate peoples state of consciousness. Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness includes chemically induced happiness.
Testing the Tide | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - June 2020
We would rather be ruined than changed. -W H Auden, The Age of Anxiety This is my forty-third portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $726 306 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 118 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 730 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $111 691 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $201 745 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 357 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $231 269 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 668 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 310 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 532 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 757 Secured physical gold – $18 913 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $10 479 Bitcoin – $148 990 Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 841 Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 553 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 484 Total portfolio value: $1 765 743 (+$8 485 or 0.5%) Asset allocation Australian shares – 42.2% (2.8% under) Global shares – 22.0% Emerging markets shares – 2.3% International small companies – 3.0% Total international shares – 27.3% (2.7% under) Total shares – 69.5% (5.5% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 4.7% International bonds – 9.4% Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under) Gold – 7.7% Bitcoin – 8.4% Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments The overall portfolio increased slightly over the month. This has continued to move the portfolio beyond the lows seen in late March. The modest portfolio growth of $8 000, or 0.5 per cent, maintains its value at around that achieved at the beginning of the year. [Chart] The limited growth this month largely reflects an increase in the value of my current equity holdings, in VAS and A200 and the Vanguard retail funds. This has outweighed a small decline in the value of Bitcoin and global shares. The value of the bond holdings also increased modestly, pushing them to their highest value since around early 2017. [Chart] There still appears to be an air of unreality around recent asset price increases and the broader economic context. Britain's Bank of England has on some indicators shown that the aftermath of the pandemic and lockdown represent the most challenging financial crisis in around 300 years. What is clear is that investor perceptions and fear around the coronavirus pandemic are a substantial ongoing force driving volatility in equity markets (pdf). A somewhat optimistic view is provided here that the recovery could look more like the recovery from a natural disaster, rather than a traditional recession. Yet there are few certainties on offer. Negative oil prices, and effective offers by US equity investors to bail out Hertz creditors at no cost appear to be signs of a financial system under significant strains. As this Reserve Bank article highlights, while some Australian households are well-placed to weather the storm ahead, the timing and severity of what lays ahead is an important unknown that will itself feed into changes in household wealth from here. Investments this month have been exclusively in the Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) using Selfwealth.* This has been to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares. A moving azimuth: falling spending continues Monthly expenses on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month. [Chart] The rolling average of monthly credit card spending is now at its lowest point over the period of the journey. This is despite the end of lockdown, and a slow resumption of some more normal aspects of spending. This has continued the brief period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent kind of financial independence. The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the degree to which portfolio distributions cover estimated total expenses, measured month to month. [Chart] There are two sources of volatility underlying its movement. The first is the level of expenses, which can vary, and the second is the fact that it is based on financial year distributions, which are themselves volatile. Importantly, the distributions over the last twelve months of this chart is only an estimate - and hence the next few weeks will affect the precision of this analysis across its last 12 observations. Estimating 2019-20 financial year portfolio distributions Since the beginning of the journey, this time of year usually has sense of waiting for events to unfold - in particular, finding out the level of half-year distributions to June. These represent the bulk of distributions, usually averaging 60-65 per cent of total distributions received. They are an important and tangible signpost of progress on the financial independence journey. This is no simple task, as distributions have varied in size considerably. A part of this variation has been the important role of sometimes large and lumpy capital distributions - which have made up between 30 to 48 per cent of total distributions in recent years, and an average of around 15 per cent across the last two decades. I have experimented with many different approaches, most of which have relied on averaging over multi-year periods to even out the 'peaks and troughs' of how market movements may have affected distributions. The main approaches have been:
An 'adjusted income' approach - stripping out the capital gains components of Vanguard funds to reach an estimate of underlying income generation, both across the entire investment period, and during the sharpest low of the Global Financial Crisis
A long-term asset class approach - relying on long-term historical data on averages of the income produced by various asset classes
A 'tax method' approach - this derives an income estimate as a percentage of the portfolio by drawing on taxable investment income totals from tax return records
Simple historical rolling average - this is a rolling three-year measure, based on the actual distributions record of the portfolio
Average distribution rate approach - this method uses a long-term average of annual distributions received as a percentage of the total portfolio since 1999
Each of these have their particular simplifications, advantages and drawbacks. Developing new navigation tools Over the past month I have also developed more fully an alternate 'model' for estimating returns. This simply derives a median value across a set of historical 'cents per unit' distribution data for June and December payouts for the Vanguard funds and exchange traded funds. These make up over 96 per cent of income producing portfolio assets. In other words, this model essentially assumes that each Vanguard fund and ETF owned pays out the 'average' level of distributions this half-year, with the average being based on distribution records that typically go back between 5 to 10 years. Mapping the distribution estimates The chart below sets out the estimate produced by each approach for the June distributions that are to come. [Chart] Some observations on these findings can be made. The lowest estimate is the 'adjusted GFC income' observation, which essentially assumes that the income for this period is as low as experienced by the equity and bond portfolio during the Global Financial Crisis. Just due to timing differences of the period observed, this seems to be a 'worst case' lower bound estimate, which I do not currently place significant weight on. Similarly, at the highest end, the 'average distribution rate' approach simply assumes June distributions deliver a distribution equal to the median that the entire portfolio has delivered since 1999. With higher interest rates, and larger fixed income holdings across much of that time, this seems an objectively unlikely outcome. Similarly, the delivery of exactly the income suggested by long-term averages measured across decades and even centuries would be a matter of chance, rather than the basis for rational expectations. Central estimates of the line of position This leaves the estimates towards the centre of the chart - estimates of between around $28 000 to $43 000 as representing the more likely range. I attach less weight to the historical three-year average due to the high contribution of distributed capital gains over that period of growth, where at least across equities some capital losses are likely to be in greater presence. My preferred central estimate is the model estimate (green) , as it is based in historical data directly from the investment vehicles rather than my own evolving portfolio. The data it is based on in some cases goes back to the Global Financial Crisis. This estimate is also quite close to the raw average of all the alternative approaches (red). It sits a little above the 'adjusted income' measure. None of these estimates, it should be noted, contain any explicit adjustment for the earnings and dividend reductions or delays arising from COVID-19. They may, therefore represent a modest over-estimate for likely June distributions, to the extent that these effects are more negative than those experienced on average across the period of the underlying data. These are difficult to estimate, but dividend reductions could easily be in the order of 20-30 per cent, plausibly lowering distributions to the $23 000 to $27 000 range. The recently announced forecast dividend for the Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) is, for example, the lowest in four years. As seen from chart above, there is a wide band of estimates, which grow wider still should capital gains be unexpectedly distributed from the Vanguard retail funds. These have represented a source of considerable volatility. Given this, it may seem fruitless to seek to estimate these forthcoming distributions, compared to just waiting for them to arrive. Yet this exercise helps by setting out reasoning and positions, before hindsight bias urgently arrives to inform me that I knew the right answer all along. It also potentially helps clearly 'reject' some models over time, if the predictions they make prove to be systematically incorrect. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 81.0% 109.4% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 98.8% 133.5% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 79.2% 106.9% Summary The current coronavirus conditions are affecting all aspects of the journey to financial independence - changing spending habits, leading to volatility in equity markets and sequencing risks, and perhaps dramatically altering the expected pattern of portfolio distributions. Although history can provide some guidance, there is simply no definitive way to know whether any or all of these changes will be fundamental and permanent alterations, or simply data points on a post-natural disaster path to a different post-pandemic set of conditions. There is the temptation to fit past crises imperfectly into the modern picture, as this Of Dollars and Data post illustrates well. Taking a longer 100 year view, this piece 'The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent' is a reminder that our entire set of received truths about constructing a portfolio to survive for the long-term can be a product of a sample size of one - actual past history - and subject to recency bias. This month has felt like one of quiet routines, muted events compared to the past few months, and waiting to understand more fully the shape of the new. Nonetheless, with each new investment, or week of lower expenditure than implied in my FI target, the nature of the journey is incrementally changing - beneath the surface. Small milestones are being passed - such as over 40 per cent of my equity holdings being outside of the the Vanguard retail funds. Or these these retail funds - which once formed over 95 per cent of the portfolio - now making up less than half. With a significant part of the financial independence journey being about repeated small actions producing outsized results with time, the issue of maintaining good routines while exploring beneficial changes is real. Adding to the complexity is that embarking on the financial journey itself is likely to change who one is. This idea, of the difficulty or impossibility of knowing the preferences of a future self, is explored in a fascinating way in this Econtalk podcast episode with a philosophical thought experiment about vampires. It poses the question: perhaps we can never know ourselves at the destination? And yet, who would rationally choose ruin over any change? The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
tl;dr - This is the 17th monthly update on the 2019 Top Ten Experiment. Ethereum up the most in May, plus got a shout out from J.K. Rowling, so it obviously won the month. Overall, BTC in first place since January 2019, BSV in second place. Half of the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio is up at least +50%. XRP is worst performing. Total $3k (3 x $1k) investments the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten are up +3.5%, but similar approach with US stocks market would have yielded +10%.
Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on the 1st of January 2018. The result? The 2018 Top Ten portfolio ended 2018 down 85%, my $1000 worth only $150. I thenrepeated the experimenton the 1st of January 2019 with the new 2019 Top Ten cryptos, then again in2020. Think of the Top Ten Experiments as a lazy man’s Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, but hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole – or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018, 2019, and 2020 crypto space. I am trying to keep this project simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet. I try not to take sides or analyze, but rather attempt to report in a detached manner letting the numbers speak for themselves. This is not investing advice – as a matter of fact, the vast majority of the reports will show that the Top Ten approach under performs other strategies. This experiment is designed to be documentary in nature, describing a specific period in cryptocurrency history.
Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018, 2019, and 2020. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.
Month Seventeen – UP 43%
Unlike April’s all green month, May was more mixed. That said, the gains outweighed the losses this month in the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio.
Question of the month:
In May, Reddit launched two Ethereum-based tokens on the Cryptocurrency and FortNiteBR subreddits. What are the Cryptocurrency token called? A) Moons B) Bricks C) Satoshis D) Cryptos Scroll down for the answer.
Ranking and March Winners and Losers
Besides Stellar (down two spots to #13) and Tron (down one from #16 to #17) every other crypto was locked in place. Speaking of Stellar and Tron, they are still the only two cryptos to have dropped out of the 2019 Top Ten since January 1st, 2019. They have been replaced by Binance Coin and Tezos. May Winners – Ethereum ended the month up +16% and got a shout out from J.K. Rowling, so it obviously won May. BTC came in a close second this month, up +14%. May Losers – A tight battle for the basement this month with BSV (down -3.9%) edging out XRP (down -3.7%) for the bottom spot. For nerds those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and loses during the first seventeen months of the 2019 Top Ten Experiment: Tether is still in the lead with five monthly victories followed by BSV in second place with three. BSV also holds the most monthly losses, finishing last in six out of seventeen months.
Overall update – BTC increases lead over second place BSV, XRP still worst performing
Ahead until just last month, BSV lost a lot of ground to BTC in May. Bitcoin is now up +168% since January 2019 compared to BSV‘s +116% gain. That initial $100 investment in BTC? Now worth $273. As was the case last month, 50% of the 2019 Top Ten cryptos are up at least +50% since the beginning of the experiment. At the other end, XRP continues to struggle, now down -41% since January 2019.
Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:
The overall crypto market added about $35B in May, and is now near August 2019 levels. It is up +123% since January 2019.
BitDom was steady again in May. This marks the third straight month it’s been stuck at around 65% For context, the range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2019 has been between 50%-70%.
Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2019:
The 2019 Top Ten Portfolio gained about $65 in May. After the initial $1000 investment, the 2019 group of cryptos is worth $1,431, up about +43%. Here’s a look at the ROI over the life of the first seventeen months of the experiment, month by month: Almost completely green for the 2019 Top Ten, a welcome change from the all red table you’ll see in the 2018 experiment. As you can see, every month except the first month ends in positive territory. At the lowest point, the 2019 Top Ten portfolio was down -9%, at the highest point, up +114% (May 2019). How does the 2019 Top Ten Experiment compare to the parallel projects?
Taking the three portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line: After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios are worth $3,104. That’s up about +3.5% for the combined portfolios. Better than a few months ago (aka the zombie apocalypse) where it was down -24%, but not yet back at January (+13%) or February (+6%) levels. How does this compare to traditional markets?
How does the 2019 Top Ten portfolio compare US stock market?
Excellent question, I’m glad you asked. And you’re in luck, I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. Despite the fact that the world seemed to be on fire, May 2020 saw the continued rebound of the stock market. It’s now up +22% since the start of the 2019 Experiment. As a reminder (or just scroll up) the 2019 Top Ten portfolio is returning +43% over the same time period, which is about double the S&P 500. The initial $1k investment I put into crypto would be worth $1,220 had it been redirected to the S&P 500 in January 2019. But what if I took the same world’s-slowest-dollar-cost-averaging/$1,000-per-year-in-January approach with the S&P 500? It would yield the following:
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$140
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$220
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: -$50
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P: After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,310. That $3,310 is up over+10%since January 2018, compared to the $3,104 value (+3.5%) of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios. That’s about a 7% difference in favor of the stock market. Last month, there was only a 3% difference, the month before, the gap was 13% (all in favor of the stock market).
The difference between the 2019 Top Ten crypto group and the overall crypto market is stark. Since January 2019, the overall market has gained +123% compared to the 2019 Top Ten crypto group which has gained +43%. This is an absolutely massive 80% gap. A +43% return is solid compared to the stock market, but it also implies that an investor would have done much better picking different cryptos or investing in the entire market instead of focusing only on the Top Ten. There are a few examples of this approach outperforming the overall market in this 2019 Top Ten Crypto Experiment, but the cases are few and far between. The 2018 Top Ten portfolio, on the other hand, has never outperformed the overall market, at least not in the first twenty-nine months of that Experiment. For the most recent 2020 Top Ten group, the opposite had been true: the 2020 Top Ten had easily outperformed the overall market 100% of the time…until this month.
The BTC halving event came and went in May and crypto markets shrugged. As the world continues to change because of COVID-19, what will be crypto’s place when we finally emerge on the other side? Final word: Please take care of yourselves, your families, and your communities. Stay safe out there. Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for the original 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment and the recently launched 2020 Top Ten Experiment.
And the Answer is…
A) Moons According CryptoCurrency, Moons represent ownership in the subreddit, “tokens on the Ethereum blockchain controlled entirely by you, and they can be freely transferred, tipped, and spent inCryptoCurrency*.*” Check out this post for more details.
Three suggestions for better boundaries between Monero and Tari
I write this as a multi-year Monero contributor to the subreddit, the CCS, and minor commits to both the CLI and GUI. However, my Reddit account is newish since I regularly delete my Reddit account every six months or so out of privacy concerns, so let my words in this post act as proof of my grasp of Monero and our community's values. I have been increasingly confused by how intermingled the goals of Monero have become with Tari. Naturally, I could care less if someone wants to merge-mine with Monero. But last week we had dEBRUYNE, longtime excellent mod of this subreddit, break the subreddit's own rules to announce Tari's testnet. So naturally it feels like the Monero community is being invited to align itself with Tari, both alongside Tari's development and its eventual goals. Yet I don't feel like the Monero community is fully aware of how this conflation has the potential to degrade the purity of our community, so that's why I am writing this post today. On the one hand you have Monero, perhaps the only pure cryptocurrency project left in the entire space. Bitcoin development has declined to a crawl. Yes, regular commits to its code happen all the time, but fundamentally they have become a traceable surveillance coin, and make no major efforts to change this. Greg Maxwell's Confidential Transactions are just sitting there on the shelf, waiting to be implemented. It's sad, really. Thankfully, there is us. There is Monero. We have all of the benefits of Bitcoin in that we were fairly launched (no premine, founder's share, etc), are decentralized, PoW, and open source. Further our culture reflects the culture of Bitcoin's origins. There is no price talk in Monero. No memes. (Bitcoin's subreddit is overwhelmed with price memes, a harbinger of a dying coin.) Indeed, Monero's community is first passionate about the technology inside it. Some of the most upvoted posts in this sub are actual gd pull requests. So wonderful. I think back to how painfully long it took us to complete the GUI. So many of us were so focused on getting the CLI right that the GUI was delayed for (I think) almost two years. There are precious few coins like that these days. Namecoin is a wonderful exception. Jeremy Rand's recent presentation on how Namecoin has been implented in the Tor-browser is perhaps the most exciting news in cryptoland all year. Unlike 95% of the burning crypto dumpster fire, people may soon actually use Namecoin, typing something like Monero.bit instead of a long difficult aasldkfasdlkfjadlkfj.onion address. And then you have everybody else. 95% of the crypto garbage out there is fundamentally useless if not a straight up scam. Most of the stuff falls into 2 different camps of crap: (Crap 1) useless slick coins with massive marketing budgets, and (Crap 2) reskinned forks. 95% of the garbage out there cares first and foremost about how it appears on the surface, because: the first goal for most cryptos is not making something useful, it's making money. You can have a coin like Dash that "innovates" a PoW by stringing a bunch of hash functions together to make it's X11 algo, but since the wallet software itself impresses people, they don't care. Who cares if there is fundamental collision potential in X11 that could break the coin in a single block? Everything looks sliiick. In short, you can tell if a cryptocurrency is healthy or not if its first goal is making money or making something useful. Thankfully Tari does not seem to be as bad as 95% of the stuff out there. A cursory glance at their repo makes it seem like Fluffypony found talented devs who know their stuff. Further, I think the idea of merge-mining alongside Monero is quite smart. I am a huge fan of Tevador and hyc and the work they did on RandomX, so anything that champions their creation is welcome to me! My hope is we have dozens of merge-mined RandomX coins in the coming decades. Our hash rate will only increase, and the security of our chain will improve. Furthermore, I think Fluffypony himself is a guy with a lot of integrity, so I actually feel a degree of trust towards Tari that I wouldn't naturally feel. The issue is Tari's goals. I say this dispassionately: I am uncertain if Tari's central goal is to make something useful or to make money. Here's an article in Blockchain News announcing Tari. In it, they describe what Tari's software will hopefully do:
in our digital world, these restrictions are unduly limiting for both businesses and consumers, making it costly, difficult, or impossible for digital assets to be resold or transferred,” the announcement stated. “For businesses, this means missing out on the tens of billions of dollars generated each year from secondary resale and trading of the digital goods they issue. For consumers, this means never having true ownership of their digital assets, despite having earned or paid for them.”
Sounds ok. Who wouldn't want the ability to trade scarce digital assets with programmed rules? I certainly would. However, farther down the page you have this:
... those involved with the project include John Pleasants, the former CEO of Ticketmaster and the venture firms Redpoint, Trinity Ventures, Canaan Partners, Slow Ventures, Aspect Ventures, DRW Ventures, Blockchain Capital, Pantera, and Multicoin Capital.
Here is where things get a little hairy, and why I am nervous about the pump-culture of crypto leaking into the tech-culture of Monero. Redpoint is a backer of the scammy gambling website Draft Kings. Blockchain Capital is a backer of Coinbase and Ripple. Pantera put up some of the cash that made ZCash happen. I don't know about you, but it makes me squirm a bit to see Tari's logo alongside ZCash and Ripple. Naturally, the terms of their VC investments are somewhere in black and white, yet there is nothing anywhere on the Tari website about the emission schedule of the coin. In fact, unlike most VC backed crypto out there, Tari doesn't even list their investors. They used to list it in their FAQ as seen on archive.org, but have since removed it. Monero is one of the most hopeful things in the world right now, and it has this special status for me because it cares first and foremost about the technology it is innovating. Decentralized private open-sourced cash. It's an incredible wonderful future that we're all making together. Nothing like Monero has ever existed. But it is more fragile than people realize. It can be slowly killed. This community can eventually become like Bitcoin, stuck in price-memes, if the culture gets sucked away from technology and into profit making. Is it possible for Tari to accept VC money and be solely focused on the technology of a product? Theoretically, yes. But it's not easy. I've had to work with a few small Silicon Valley companies who also accepted VC cash, and returns to their shareholders were a constant source of pressure on them. Will it be for Tari? Monero needed many years to be awkward and small in order to strengthen itself to be the sizable functional coin it is today. Does Tari have this same patience, or will the VCs need payouts sooner than that? If Fluffypony's main goal in Tari is to help people trade digital assets then why didn't he simply launch Tari like Monero, free and open source (FOSS)? Namecoin is FOSS and merge-mined; it has no VC backers. As a worst-case scenario, how long will it be before Tari is "given back to the community", as so many VC-inspired coins have done? Dead code repos all over the corners of cryptoland, discarded after the venture capital firms dumped their premine and took off. There are a lot of unanswered questions here. In closing, I have three suggestions:
Fluffypony should publish the emission schedule as soon as he can, so Tari’s fans can know if there is a premine/founders-share/etc. And perhaps be transparent about how their venture capital investors are being compensated.
People here should think critically before they get involved Tari. It has a different ethos than Monero.
Despite the Fluffypony connection, Rule #4 should be enforced, disallowing posts promoting merge-mined coins like Tari from this forum. If Tari is allowed in this forum, we need our moderators to be honest about whether or not they are investors in Tari and have a conflict of interest. That said, most mods are anonymous, so it's actually impossible to enforce this disclosure. So I guess just enforce Rule #4.
$1k invested in Top 10 Cryptos on Jan. 1, 2020 now worth $1,264 (UP +26%)
EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2020 - Month Six - UP +26% See the full blog post with all the tableshere. Not sure what this is all about? Here is the history and ground rules of these experiments. tl;dr - This snapshot was taken on July 1st, 2020. By the slimmest of margins, the 2020 Top Ten is still the best performing of the three experiments. In June: Tether holds its ground, as a stablecoin should, all others finish the month in negative territory. BSV loses nearly a quarter of its value in June and is worst performing for the second straight month. Overall, since January 2020, it is Tezos in lead (+88%) followed by second place ETH (+79%). The 2020 Top 10 is up +26% compared to the -4% loss of the S&P 500 since 01.01.2020.
Month Six – UP 26%
Lots of red this month While technically still the best performing of the Top Ten “Index Fund” Experiments for the fifth straight month, this month the 2020 Top Ten cut it close. Very close. How close? The 2020 Top Ten is up +26.6% compared to the 2019 Top Ten’s +25.9%. Watch your back, 2020 Top Ten.
Question of the month:
Which country trialed Bitcoin payments for passports in June?
A) Costa Rica B) Venezuela C) Mongolia D) Eritrea Scroll down for the answer.
Ranking and June Winners and Losers
Movement in rank After a very strange zero movement May, we saw some ups and down with the 2020 Top Ten in June. Okay, mostly downs: XRP fell one, dropping it’s long-held #3 slot. Both EOS and Tezos struggled in June: both lost two places in the rankings and both dropped out of the Top Ten. Tether is the only crypto to make a positive move in June, never a good sign. June Winners – Just Tether. The rest of the field struggled in June. ETH finished in second place, ending the month down -7%. June Losers – BSV under-performed its peers for the second straight month, losing almost a quarter of its value (-23%) in June. Tezos also struggled, down -18% since the beginning of June. For those keeping score, I also keep a tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and losses. Tether and Tezos have won two months each. BSV has finished in last place three out of the first six months of the 2020 Top Ten Experiment.
Overall update – Tezos in lead, ETH takes second place from BSV, and 80% of Top Ten are in positive territory.
Despite a bad month, Tezos (+88% since January 2020) maintained its lead. Ethereum (+79%) isn’t far behind in second place and has overtaken third place BSV (+59%). Not counting Tether, the worst performing crypto is XRP, down -7% on the year.
Total Market Cap for the cryptocurrency sector:
The overall crypto market lost over $20B in June but is still up +38% since the beginning this year’s experiment in January 2020.
Bitcoin dominance fell a tiny bit, but hasn’t really made a significant move all year.
Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2020:
After an initial $1000 investment, the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio is now worth $1,264, up +26.4%. It is the best performing of the three Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Portfolio, but just barely: the 2019 group came in at +25.9% in June. Here’s the month by month ROI of the 2020 Top Ten Experiment, hopefully helpful to maintain perspective and provide an overview as we go along: All green first half of 2020 Besides the zombie apocalypse blip in March, so far so good: all green is good to see and a nice change from the all red table you’ll see in the 2018 experiment. The range of monthly ROI for the 2020 Top Ten has been between +7% and +55%. So, how does the 2020 Top Ten Experiment compare to the parallel projects?
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line: After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my combined portfolios are worth $2,710. That’s down about -10% for the three combined portfolios. That’s compared to about +4% last month. Better than a few months ago (aka the zombie apocalypse) where it was down -24%, but not yet back at January (+13%) or February (+6%) levels. Lost in the numbers? Here’s a new table to help visualize the progress of the combined portfolios: So that’s the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments snapshot. Let’s take a look at how traditional markets are doing.
Comparison to S&P 500
I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. Even with COVID and protests in the US, stocks continued to tick up. The S&P is now down just -4% since the beginning of the year. Over the same time period, the 2020 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio is returning about +26%. The initial $1k investment now worth about $1,264. The money I put into crypto in January 2020 would be worth $960 had it been redirected to the S&P 500. That’s a $304 difference on a $1k investment. Not bad, but not as impressive as last month’s $517 swing. And what if I invested in the S&P 500 the same way I did during the first three years of the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments? You know, the world’s slowest dollar cost averaging/$1k on January 1st approach? Here are the figures:
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$170
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$240
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: -$40
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P: After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,370. That $3,370 is up over+12%since January 2018, compared to the $2,710 value (-10%) of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios. Here’s another new table to help visualize the difference in ROI of the combined crypto portfolios vs. a hypothetical identical approach with the S&P 500: The new table makes it easy to see that crypto and the markets went in opposite directions in June. This has produced the largest difference in favor of the S&P since the beginning of 2020: a 22% gap. Compare that February, when there was only a 1% difference in ROI.
The crypto market as a whole is up +38% since the beginning of the year compared to the 2020 Top Ten cryptos which have gained +26%. For the second month in a row, and the only two times since the Top Ten 2020 began, the cryptos in this group have under-performed the overall market. Up until the last two months, focusing on the 2020 Top Ten has been a solid approach, but it has not worked so well in the other experiment years. Although there are a few examples of the Top Ten strategy outperforming the overall market in the 2019 Top Ten Experiment, it’s interesting to note at no point in the first thirty months of the Top Ten 2018 Experiment has the approach of focusing on the Top Ten cryptos outperformed the overall market. Not even once.
The world continues to struggle with a global pandemic and traditional markets have nearly bounced back. Although up since the beginning of the year, Crypto did not keep pace with US stocks in June. Will crypto reassert itself in the second half of the year? Final word: Please take care of yourselves and your neighbors. FYI – everyone is your neighbor. Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for the original 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment and the 2019 Top Ten Experiment follow up experiment.
And the Answer is…
B) Venezuela According to multiple sources, a Bitcoin payment option was available when paying online for passport services in Venezuela. It didn’t last long though: just hours later, the option disappeared, according to user reports.
Energi is a self-funding (no ICO and no premine) cryptocurrency that has a purpose to become the world’s leading cryptocurrency with the unification of Smart Contracts, Governance and Self-funding Treasury to ensure longevity and enable rapid growth. You can read more about why we decided to self-fund and chose not to conduct an ICO here. Energi provides a small allocation to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) rewards, takes a bulk of the coin issuance and gives it to its treasury and active Masternodes. Energi also allocates 10% on-going reward to the leadership of the Energi Backbone, which is significantly less compared to today’s ICOs’ rewarding their founders between 20–50% of the tokens distributed. Another trait that sets Energi apart from ICOs is they give an on-going 10% allocation through each block reward, rather than rewarding the founders up-front.
2. What are the Fundamentals of Energi?
1 minute block times and a 2 megabyte block size limit provide Energi with a vast transaction capacity for regular on-chain transactions. This allows for plenty of space on the blockchain for extremely fast transactions with very low fees. Energi features a powerful on-chain scaling solution with a system of incentivized full nodes called Energi Masternodes. A Masternode is a full node backed by 1,000 NRG collateral that provides level 2 scalability to the Energi Cryptocurrency. 40% of the emissions of Energi is allocated to Masternodes, providing an extremely strong incentive to grow the number of full nodes and scalability of the network.
A key feature of Energi is its powerful treasury system. Energi makes up to 40% of the emissions available to the treasury, to be utilized in a manner that provides maximum benefit. Treasury allocation is decentralized, allowing for submitted proposals from anyone, to be voted on by Masternodes and paid out from the emissions. Energi has a 14 day treasury cycle, allowing quick payments for proposal authors and contributors, as well as strategic responsiveness to effective proposals. Energi is guided by the principle that every dollar spent from its funding model should yield more than one dollar of value in return. Thanks to a 14 day treasury cycle, the Energi team is able to measure results and respond quickly to changes in strategy.
The Energi Treasury is a decentralized governance model designed with Masternodes as caretakers, with voting rights on how to best utilize treasury funding. This governance model reduces risk by allowing participation from everyone who holds 1,000 NRG as a Masternode. In this way, the Energi community can work together on how to best build the strategic direction of Energi.
Energi Cryptocurrency has a simple rate of inflation at 1 million coins per month with no maximum cap. This ensures consistency in funding allocation, Masternode rewards, and PoS rewards, making the economics of the cryptocurrency more understandable for everyone who chooses to participate in Energi. No coin supply limit ensures that Energi is prepared for the long term, avoiding “bubble” economics caused by dramatic early inflation that in most coins only serves to benefit founders ahead of increased adoption.
Energi conducted a fair launch on April 14, 2018 with no ICO and no premine. Prior to launch, the Energi team gave a specific time and date for the launch of its main net, which its vibrant community eagerly awaited, so that mining could begin fairly, again avoiding centralization among the coin founders (It's important to note that Energi has transitioned from Proof-of-Work consensus to a Proof-of-Stake consensus). Energi Masternode payments were designed to begin at block 216000, which occurred on September 18, 2018, almost 160 days after launch. This ensured time to list Energi on exchanges, and to grow the community, encouraging fair and equitable distribution before the extremely powerful Masternode rewards began. It is all too common for Masternode coins to feature a premine, which has the effect of centralizing distribution among the founders and early adopters. From 2018 to 2020, Energi distributed nearly 4 million coins to users who contributed to spreading awareness of the project with social media activities about Energi, such as tweets, follows, and subscriptions on all major social media platforms.
Decentralized governance with Masternodes helps to ensure everyone is able to participate in Energi and help guide the project to achieve the best results. The change to the requirement to run a Masternode, from 10 000 NRG to 1 000 NRG, has allowed more people to be involved and boosted decentralization for the whole project.
Long Term Vision
All of the above features seamlessly work together in concert, to ensure that Energi is prepared for the long term. Rather than try to closely find a niche in the market, Energi is prepared to adapt and overcome all challenges for many years to come. Energi’s use case is that of a traditional cryptocurrency, such as Bitcoin. However, Energi’s strategy is to excel by avoiding the pitfalls of previous projects, while further utilizing and improving upon the most powerful ideas in the cryptocurrency space.
3. Coin Specs
Ticker: NRG Block time: 1 minute. Hashing Algorithm: Dagger-Hashimoto (similar to Ethereum). Masternode requirements: 1,000 Energi. Treasury cycle: Every 14 days. Approximately 1 million Energi will be released per month. The allocations can be observed easily as “10/10/40/40.” 10% will go to the Energi Backbone. 10% to the PoS participants 40% to Masternodes. 40% to the Treasury. Thus, for every block, allocations are: 2.28 Energi to the Backbone, 2.28 Energi to the PoS participants, 9.14 Energi to the Treasury, and 9.14 Energi to Masternodes. Since Treasury allocations are paid in two-week cycles, they are made in lump sums of approximately 184,000 Energi every 14 days. In order to allow for widespread distribution of Energi before Masternode payments began, Masternode rewards were delayed until day 150. This was to allow the airdrop campaign to be completed and ensure a large amount of NRG is spread out through the community. Until that point, Masternode rewards were redirected to the Treasury. Thus for the first 5 months, the Treasury gained approximately 368,000 Energi every two weeks (about 800k Energi per month). The airdrop campaign was designed to release ~4 million Energi to the community.
Part 1/4 - NSA Connection: First off, the SHA-256 algorithm, which stands for Secure Hash Algorithm 256, is a member of the SHA-2 cryptographic hash functions designed by the NSA and first published in 2001. SHA-256, like other hash functions, takes any input and produces an output (often called a hash) of fixed length. The output of a hashing algorithm such as SHA-256 will always be the same length - regardless of the input size. Specifically, the output is, as the name suggests, 256 bits. Moreover, all outputs appear completely random and offer no information about the input that created it. The Bitcoin Network utilises the SHA-256 algorithm for mining and the creation of new addresses. Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? What does Satoshi Nakamoto mean? Out of respect for their anonymity, it would be rude to speculate in a video about who Satoshi Nakamoto is likely to be. The reality is, it's not important. Let me explain: Any human being can be attacked. Jesus could come back from the dead, and there would be haters. Therefore, the Satoshi Nakamoto approach neutralises the natural human herd behaviour, exacerbated by the media, to attack and discredit. This is a very important part of Bitcoin's success thus far. Also, from a security perspective, those who wish to dox Satoshi Nakamoto in a video are essentially putting his, or her, or their, life at risk...for the sake of views. As a genius who has produced an innovation not just from a technical perspective but also a monetary perspective, they should be treated with more respect than that. As for the name Satoshi Nakamoto, I would speculate that it is a homage to Tatsuaki Okamoto and Satoshi Obana - two cryptographers from Japan. There is another reason for the name, but that...is confidential. In 1996, the NSA's Cryptology Division of their Office of Information Security Research and Technology published a paper titled: "How to make a mint: The cryptography of anonymous electronic cash", first publishing it in an MIT mailing list and later, in 1997, in the American University Law Review. One of the researchers they referenced was Tatsuaki Okamoto. Part 2/4 - 'Crypto Market': Most of the crypto market is a scam. By the way, this was predicted very early on in the Bitcoin Talk forums - check out this interaction from November 8th, 2010: "if bitcoin really takes off I can see lots of get-rich-quick imitators coming on the scene: gitcoin, nitcoin, witcoin, titcoin, shitcoin... Of course the cheap imitators will disappear as quickly as those 1990s "internet currencies", but lots of people will get burned along the way." To which Bitcoin OG Gavin Andresen replies: "I agree - we're in the Wild West days of open-source currency. I expect people will get burned by scams, imitators, ponzi schemes and price bubbles." "I don't think there's a whole lot that can be done about scammers, imitators and ponzi schemes besides warning people to be careful with their money (whether dollars, euros or bitcoins)." Now, on the one hand, lack of regulation is more meritocratic (as you don't have to be an accredited investor just to get access). On the other hand, it means that crypto is, as Gavin said, a Wild West environment, with many cowboys in the Desert. Be careful. This is the same with most online courses - particularly 'How to get rich quick' courses - however with crypto you have an exponential increase in the supply of victims during the bull cycles so it is particularly prevalent during those times. In addition to this, leverage trading exchanges, which are no different to casinos, prey on naive retail traders who: A) Think they can outsmart professional traders with actual risk management skills; and B) Think they can outsmart the exchanges themselves who have an informational advantage as well as an incentive to chase stop losses and liquidate positions. Part 3/4 - CBDCs: The Fed and Central Banks around the world have printed themselves into a corner. Quantitative easing was the band-aid for the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, and more recent events have propelled the rate of money printing to absurd levels. This means that all currencies are in a race to zero - and it becomes a game of who can print more fiat faster. The powers that be know that this fiat frenzy is unsustainable, and that more and more people are becoming aware that it is a debt based system, based on nothing. The monetary system devised by bankers, for bankers, in 1913 on Jekyll Island and supercharged in 1971 is fairly archaic and also does not allow for meritocratic value transfer - fiat printing itself increases inequality. They, obviously, know this (as it is by design). The issue (for them) is that more and more people are starting to become aware of this. Moving to a modernised monetary system will allow those who have rigged the rules of the game for the last Century to get away scot-free. It will also pave the way for a new wealthy, and more tech literate, elite to emerge - again predicted in the Bitcoin Talk forums. Now...back to the powers that be. Bitcoin provides a natural transition to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and what I would describe as Finance 2.0, but what are the benefits of CBDCs for the state? More control, easier tax collection, more flexibility in monetary policy (i.e. negative interest rates) and generally a more efficient monetary system. This leads us to the kicker: which is the war on cash. The cashless society was a fantasy just a few years ago, however now it doesn't seem so far fetched. No comment. Part 4/4 - Bitcoin: What about Bitcoin? Well, Bitcoin has incredibly strong network effects; it is the most powerful computer network in the World. But what about Bitcoin's reputation? Bankers hate it. Warren Buffett hates it. Precisely, and the public hates bankers. Sure, the investing public respects Buffett, but the general public perception of anyone worth $73 billion is not exactly at all time highs right now amid record wealth inequality. In the grand scheme of things, the market cap of Bitcoin is currently around $179 billion. For example, the market cap of Gold is around $9 trillion, which is 50x the Market Cap of Bitcoin. Money has certain characteristics. In my opinion, what makes Bitcoin unique is the fact that it has a finite total supply (21 million) and a predictable supply schedule via the halving events every 4 years, which cut in half the rate at which new Bitcoin is released into circulation. Clearly, with these properties, it seems likely that Bitcoin could act as a meaningful hedge against inflation. One of the key strengths of Bitcoin is the fact that the Network is decentralised... Many people don't know that PayPal originally wanted to create a global currency similar to crypto. Overall, a speculative thesis would be the following: Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the most important entities of the 21st Century, and will accelerate the next transition of the human race. Trusted third parties are security holes. Bitcoin is the catalyst for Finance 2.0, whereby value transfer is conducted in a more meritocratic and decentralised fashion. In 1964, Russian astrophysicist Nikolai Kardashev designed the Kardashev Scale. At the time, he was looking for signs of extraterrestrial life within cosmic signals. The Scale has three categories, which are based on the amount of usable energy a civilisation has at its disposal, and the degree of space colonisation. Generally, a Type 1 Civilisation has achieved mastery of its home planet (10^16W); A Type 2 Civilisation has mastery over its solar system (10^26W); and a Type 3 Civilisation has mastery over its Galaxy (10^36W). We humans are a Type 0 Civilisation on this Scale. Nonetheless, our exponential technological growth in the few decades indicates that we are somewhere between Type 0 and Type 1. In fact, according to Carl Sagan's interpolated Kardashev Scale and recent global energy consumption, we are about 0.73. Physicist Freeman Dyson estimated that within 200 years or so, we should attain Type 1 status. As a technology that, through its decentralisation, links entities globally and makes value transfer between humans more efficient, Bitcoin could prove a key piece of our progression as a civilisation. What are your thoughts? Is it true...or false? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oQLOqpP1ZM
Bitcoin is scarce, and because there is demand for it in many forms, it has value. There are currently 14.9, BTC in circulation and the price per Bitcoin is $455 at the time of writing. Peter Thiel Explains What Backs the U.S. Dollar. and consequently, why Bitcoin is no threat to the U.S. dollar: coins would circulate at the higher nominal value set by the sovereign and Ever since the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944, other major governments and central banks have relied on the U.S. dollar to back up the value of their own currencies. Through its reserve currency A US dollar-backed token has been announced for Ethereum, but regulators will eventually clamp down on the centralized entity behind the token. What backs Bitcoin? 06.01.2017 11:36. Buying bitcoins may not seem to be the most attractive investment since it is not backed by anything ( like generic currencies ) nor is it intrinsically valuable. In the same time nowadays US dollar also has no real value and it makes things simple and complicated in the same time.
uh oh, bitcoin price back to 8500 USD? many signs of reversal!
Hello! In this short video, I want to explain what to expect from the price of Bitcoin! NEXT MOVE OF BTC! WHEN 8K? LONG OR SHORT? Inside video: — Support and Resistance — Elliott Waves ... This video shows the historical chart of Bitcoin/USD starting year 2010 to 2019. Source: https://info.binance.com/en/currencies/bitcoin Please subscribe for ... The price dropped over 3.2% or $7.3, and that’s been the third consecutive day that a decrease has taken place. And it’s also in line with the slumping BTC/USD, as far as the Bitcoin Cash vs ... -bitcoin price usd -best bitcoin price in united states 2020 -best bitcoin price prediction 2020 So you would like to know more about bitcoin price, I did too and here is the video that I created ... How To Trade F&O using Price Action, RSI, MA by Ashish Kyal Trading Gurukul Ashish Kyal 178 watching Live now Live Stock Scanner 7/13 Pre-market Gap scanner - Duration: 8:11:25.